Posted: Sep 12, 2006 10:23 am EDT
Space transportation is going increasingly private. The upcoming Soyuz launch in Russia will be the first made by a private company, and here in US, SpaceX was recently one of two winners of the NASA Commercial Orbital Transportation Services competition. If all goes well, Elon Musk will be in charge of cargo transportation to the International Space Station. If all goes really well, he'll also win Bigelow's $50-million prize set up to find the best vehicles for the commute to private, inflatable space stations.

Falcon 1.1 - next attempt in November

Following a number of busted deadlines, Elon Musk's rocket finally took flight March 24. Falcon 1, priced at $6.7 million was to accelerate to 17,000 mph (twenty-five times the speed of sound) in less than ten minutes. The target orbit was 400 km X 500 km (just above the International Space Station) at an inclination of 39 degrees. Unfortunately the vehicle was lost in the first stage burn. The customer for the failed March mission was DARPA and the Air Force.

"The crash was partially successful due to the data obtained," Elon stated on the recent Mars Society conference. "DARPA is a customer again for the planned Falcon 1.1 November launch."

Falcon 9 - 90% done with all the manufacturing tooling

While Falcon 1 is to provide the lowest cost per flight to orbit of any launch vehicle in the world, Falcon 9 is designed for a human carrying rocket. It has 40-50% above safety level = NASA level of manflight. The Falcon 9/Dragon is basically a satellite with human payload. The crewed version has a life-support system and an escape tower - holding up to 7 members.

Elon reported on Falcon 9 back in July: "We've made a tremendous amount of progress on that front. Except for the fairing (nosecone), we are 90% done with all the manufacturing tooling and should have serial number 1 of the first stage built within three to four months. We are targeting a stage hold down, multi-engine firing in about six months."

The money

It took 8 years for the South African Elon Musk 36, to turn his first start-up, Zip2, into a $22 million cash sale, and make his PayPal the largest online payment provider in the world; eBay paying him $150 million for it.

Despite $100 million of his own cash already invested and a recent crash, Elon is undeterred when it comes to his new venture: According to him, by next year SpaceX will be the main manufacturer in US of rocket booster engines (30 are planned in 2007, and 40-50 in 2008).

In Washington last month Elon said, "SpaceX is soon cash flow positive, and several more big contracts are underway."

Well, here goes the latest newsletter from the young entrepreneur:

SpaceX Wins NASA Competition to Replace Space Shuttle

"As you may have read by now, SpaceX was one of two winners of the NASA Commercial Orbital Transportation Services competition. The SpaceX portion of the award is $278 million for three flight demonstrations of Falcon 9 carrying our Dragon spaceship, which are scheduled to occur in late 2008 and 2009. The final flight will culminate in the transfer of cargo to the International Space Station (ISS) and return of cargo safely to Earth."

"The agreement also contains an option of similar value for three demonstration flights of the seven person manned version of Dragon, which in this case will end up with us taking people to the ISS and back.

If the demonstrations are successful, SpaceX will be in pole position to win ISS resupply business worth about $300M to $500M per year from 2011 to 2015 and perhaps beyond. There is obviously a tremendous amount that needs to be accomplished between now and then, but, provided SpaceX executes well, this win constitutes the first part of two to three billion dollars of NASA business."

Bigelow Aerospace and SpaceX have an ongoing dialogue

"To ensure a rapid transition from cargo to crew capability, the cargo Dragon and crew Dragon are almost identical, with the exception of the crew escape system, the life support system and onboard controls that allow the crew to take over control from the flight computer when needed."

"Since we already have three Falcon 9 launches on contract, the NASA flights will probably represent the 4th, 5th and 6th flights of Falcon 9, but will definitely be the first three flights of the Dragon spaceship."

"In addition to servicing NASA needs, I expect that F9/Dragon will also be of service to Bigelow Aerospace, which recently had a very successful flight of their sub-scale commercial space station.

Bigelow Aerospace and SpaceX have an ongoing dialogue to ensure that F9/Dragon meets the human transportation needs of their planned space station as efficiently as possible."

Reusability fundamental to achieving a revolutionary reduction in spaceflight costs

"Apart from a few minor bits & pieces, both Falcon 9 and Dragon are intended to be fully reusable. The F9 first stage, F9 second stage and Dragon are all designed to land via parachute in water, although we could always add airbags later for a land landing, if that turned out to be lower cost."

"If the recovery and reuse is successful, the F9/Dragon vehicle will be the world's first fully reusable system (the Shuttle system loses the large orange tank every flight, so is considered partially reusable). Making the economics of reusability work well, which is not a given even if all pieces are recovered, is fundamental to achieving a revolutionary reduction in spaceflight costs. If a Boeing 747 could only be used for a single flight, your ticket cost would be enormous and this is no less true for a rocket."

"As you might imagine, SpaceX has an increased need for talented and driven people to join the team. If you are either personally interested or know someone who is a first rate candidate, please take a look at our jobs page."

It took four years for South African Elon Musk 36, to turn his first start-up, Zip2, into a $22 million cash sale, and it took another four years for Musk to make PayPal the largest online payment provider in the world, only for eBay to make it the site’s primary payment engine and pay him $150 million for it. It’s been four years since Musk’s Space Exploration Technologies Corporation, or SpaceX, came into being in El Segundo, California. After a series of wrecked deadlines, $100 million invested and a recent crash, Elon is undeterred: "SpaceX now has ten launches on manifest and is on track to be cash flow positive in 2006, our fourth full year of operation." In fact, according to Elon, by next year SpaceX will be the main manufacturer in US of rocket booster engines (30 are planned in 2007, and 40-50 in 2008).

The pioneer has dispatched through thick and thin - offering all the details of his battle for space. "I think I’ve come to realize what makes orbital rocket development so tough. It is not that any particular element is all that difficult, but rather that you are forced to develop a very complex product that can’t be fully tested in its real environment until launch and, when you do launch, there can be zero significant errors," he said earlier.

The inital launch pad at Vandenberg Air Force Base (near Santa Barbara, California) was abandoned last year for a tropical island - the Island of Dr. Yes. As a result of hundreds of millions of dollars of investment by the Defense Department over the past several decades, Kwajalein is home to some of the world’s most powerful radar tracking and space communications systems.

But this is all only the beginning, according to Elon: His ultimate goal is to "make life multi-planetary." He wants human life spread out to the moon and Mars, using the next generation Falcon handling 100 tons of load.

Bigelow

Along with Elon's rocket company; Robert Bigelow's inflatable Space Station is the most interesting private space project right now.

While waiting for Elon Musk's Falcon to take off, Bigelow contracted the Russian/Ukrainian rocket-for-hire company ISC Kosmotras, to launch the one-third scale version of the hotel into space aboard a converted Cold War ballistic missile.

Genesis I blew up like a balloon when it reached Earth orbit on July 12th. The inflatable satellite is a remarkable step to future space hotels. The 30-ft balloon, testing inflatable modules for future space stations is now orbiting Earth. The current mission focus on the inflation process; next Bigelow missions will test docking among spacecraft and a full-scale mock-up is slated to launch in 2012.

If it works out, the Las Vegas Budget suites owner will not only be able to offer tickets at 8 million dollars, or rooms at 1 million per night - but he'll build a chain...on the Moon, Mars - and beyond.

TransHab inflatable space station was created by NASA senior Engineer Schneider in 1997. The work was abruptly cancelled in 2000, possibly for political reasons. Robert bought the entire setup including engineers and re-named the station Nautilus. Schneider now visits the plant every few weeks to provide guidance.

An inflatable station weigh much less than a regular one, and offers more space. After a rocket fires a Nautilus into space, explosive bolts will inflate the structure and release breathable air. Power comes from solar panels that unfold from bulkheads at each end of the module.

People will enter through airlocks into a shirtsleeve environment of living and working space. "Skywalker" - a docked rocket engine will allow the station to maneuver within Earth’s orbit or even leave it for a trip to the moon.

Nautilus is being built on a 50-acre, three-building facility at the outskirts of Las Vegas. Veteran space-travel engineers are perfecting the technology, and a $50-million prize is set up to find the best vehicles for the commute.

Carrier bets are spread between American SpaceX, Russian launch vehicles - and/or winners of Robert's $50 million American Space Prize.

The Prize money will finally go to the first privately funded spacecraft that can send five people into orbit, dock with a Bigelow Aerospace habitat and stay there for 6 months. The deadline for the Prize is set for January 10, 2010.

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